RNC ad strategy.

Back on October 23 we reported that the RNC had just bought up most of the available TV spots here in Mid-Missouri. Well, we've certainly seen the results. There have been a spat of new negative ads hitting Obama on experience, celebrity and defense. (Although, to be fair, some of these ads are better classified as "contrast" ads, ones that make legitimate points about an opponent.)

The question is, why did they wait until now to run these ads? Obama has virtually solidified the narrative--including the negative characterization of McCain as another 4 years of Bush. Investing earlier may have prevented this characterization from taking hold.

The reason is that these ads are directed at the undecideds, a key element of the McCain camp's win strategy. The conventional wisdom among some (although I've seen polls that suggest differently) is that the undecideds will break for McCain and all they need is a little push to remind them how uncomfortable they are with an Obama presidency (for whatever reason.)

Usually a good strategy except that McCain has never really defined himself to the voters and many of the undecideds have been waiting for that defining moment. In other words, they don't need the scales tipped against Obama, they need a reason to vote for McCain. Given this, he should be running positive ads that highlight his biography, his accomplishments, and what he will do as President.

The Obama campaign gets this--why else would they run a 30 minute warm fuzzy of an ad a week out?