Stimulation, however, is somewhat the opposite of persuasion. You're not going to persuade someone of something when you're (literally, in Ziegler's case) yelling in their ear.Not to sound like an old coot but the younger generations are so much more stimulation-oriented than in the past. Technology is so quick that absolutely no time passes between thinking something and saying it. Imagine how differently the Cuban Missile Crisis would have turned out had JFK been part of the stimulation society and had been able to instantaneous react to what the Soviet Union was doing.
The McCain campaign was all about stimulation. The Britney Spears ads weren't persuasive, but they sure were stimulating! "Drill, baby, drill" wasn't persuasive, but it sure was stimulating! Sarah Palin wasn't persuasive, but she sure was (literally, in Rich Lowry's case) stimulating!
Friday, November 21, 2008
Stimulation society.
More from that great piece by Silver:
The necessity of persuasion.
Nate Silver of FiveThirtyEight.com has an interesting take on why the conservatives lost this election cycle:
In all fairness, there are many on the left who have this same attitude. As one who leans more left and hails from a traditionally blue state, I can attest to the fact that I simply cannot understand why anyone would have problems with gays or lesbians or people of color. It takes a lot of effort to pull myself out of my belief systems so I can take the time to understand someone else's. Of course, I'm pretty good about avoiding being paranoid or vulgar when I do so.
There are a certain segment of conservatives who literally cannot believe that anybody would see the world differently than the way they do. They have not just forgotten how to persuade; they have forgotten about the necessity of persuasion.
John Ziegler is a shining example of such a conservative. During my interview with him, Ziegler made absolutely no effort to persuade me about the veracity of any of his viewpoints. He simply asserted them -- and then became frustrated, paranoid, or vulgar when I rebutted them.
In all fairness, there are many on the left who have this same attitude. As one who leans more left and hails from a traditionally blue state, I can attest to the fact that I simply cannot understand why anyone would have problems with gays or lesbians or people of color. It takes a lot of effort to pull myself out of my belief systems so I can take the time to understand someone else's. Of course, I'm pretty good about avoiding being paranoid or vulgar when I do so.
Wednesday, November 19, 2008
McCain Wins MO!
Missouri finally called for McCain.
The election's been over for two weeks and no one really cared that we hadn't yet determined who won. Can we possible get any more irrelevant?
The election's been over for two weeks and no one really cared that we hadn't yet determined who won. Can we possible get any more irrelevant?
Monday, November 17, 2008
You betcha!
Sarah Palin just keeps on going and going...
Kudos to Dick Cavett of the NYT for providing us with this Palin gem:
If you say it in your head with her voice, it actually makes more sense.
Kudos to Dick Cavett of the NYT for providing us with this Palin gem:
My concern has been the atrocities there in Darfur and the relevance to me with that issue as we spoke about Africa and some of the countries there that were kind of the people succumbing to the dictators and the corruption of some collapsed governments on the continent, the relevance was Alaska’s investment in Darfur with some of our permanent fund dollars.
If you say it in your head with her voice, it actually makes more sense.
Thursday, November 13, 2008
The Republican bullpen.
There's been quite a few impressive ideas coming out of the Republican Governor's conference this week. A lot of talk about the elections and even more talk about the future. It's almost refreshing to here a Republican admit that the party has practically gone out of its way to turn away women, younger voters, people of color, blue collar workers, people with advanced degrees...am I missing anyone? The growing sentiment seems to be that a national party cannot simply represent white males south of I -70 and I'm interested to see how the GOP will rework their message to be more inclusive. The landscape is shifting beneath their feet and they need to move with it.
Pawlenty, Jindal and Sanford--all apparently lacking in what it takes to be a strong vice presidential candidate--had different takes on the problems with the party and different solutions. However, they all seem to be focused on both policy and the political process. Palin was another story. She seemed to talk the most but say the least. It's a shame--there are some strong Republican women out there but this year it seemed to be nothing but Dole, Bachmann and Palin talking about godlessness, rooting out the anti-Americans, and shoes. Come on people--can't we do better than this?
Pawlenty, Jindal and Sanford--all apparently lacking in what it takes to be a strong vice presidential candidate--had different takes on the problems with the party and different solutions. However, they all seem to be focused on both policy and the political process. Palin was another story. She seemed to talk the most but say the least. It's a shame--there are some strong Republican women out there but this year it seemed to be nothing but Dole, Bachmann and Palin talking about godlessness, rooting out the anti-Americans, and shoes. Come on people--can't we do better than this?
Tuesday, November 11, 2008
More GOP thoughts.
Another interesting oped on the Republicans from David Brooks of the New York Time. Although, Brooks tends to lump the small government/lower taxes folks in with with the neo-cons which strikes me as incorrect. I was always under the impression the long-time members of the GOP were appalled by the shift towards neo-con values, particularly when the government started promoting and regulating these values.
I can't help but think the Republicans will be so much more appealing as a party if they take the past emphasis on small government/less spending/fiscal conservatism and rework it into something that fits with our day and age. Stop talking about Reagen (after all, did Reagan run on the platform created by Dwight Eisenhower?) and start finding a truly conservative message that resonates with today's voters and today's issues.
I can't help but think the Republicans will be so much more appealing as a party if they take the past emphasis on small government/less spending/fiscal conservatism and rework it into something that fits with our day and age. Stop talking about Reagen (after all, did Reagan run on the platform created by Dwight Eisenhower?) and start finding a truly conservative message that resonates with today's voters and today's issues.
Yes, but what type of conservatism?
I tend to agree that the Republican train jumped the rails when it came to the traditional conservative values of less spending, smaller government, fewer regulations. However, the public willingly and knowingly embraced Obama's unapologetic belief that government can solve problems and improve people's lives (with all the spending increases that implies.) Wouldn't McCain's "conservative-lite" have been more appealing to these disaffected conservatives than Obama's decidedly non-conservative position?
Also, looking at the results from many of the statewide ballot measures and the positive response among some Republicans to the Palin pick, it appears as if value-based conservatism is going strong while fiscally-based conservatism is becoming a faint memory. And trust me--I don't think that's a good thing. I would much rather be having the traditional conservative v. liberal discussion. That way, the middle ground becomes moderate spending and moderate government intervention. There is no middle ground when it comes to hot button neo-con issues.
Also, looking at the results from many of the statewide ballot measures and the positive response among some Republicans to the Palin pick, it appears as if value-based conservatism is going strong while fiscally-based conservatism is becoming a faint memory. And trust me--I don't think that's a good thing. I would much rather be having the traditional conservative v. liberal discussion. That way, the middle ground becomes moderate spending and moderate government intervention. There is no middle ground when it comes to hot button neo-con issues.
Conservatives forgot what that really meant.
Mark Sanford, Republican governor of South Carolina, had an insightful opinion piece today on CCN.com:
Republicans have campaigned on the conservative themes of lower taxes, less government and more freedom -- they just haven't governed that way. America didn't turn away from conservatism, they turned away from many who faked it.
So during our "time in the wilderness," it's my hope that we go back to the basics of conservatism -- what it stands for and its real-world implications for people's lives. The sooner we do, the sooner we will see good policy from Republicans, and the sooner I suspect we will return to electoral favor.
Monday, November 10, 2008
Bush v. Nixon
Gallup reports that President Bush's approval rating has dropped to a record-breaking low of 27%. That's the lowest ever reported by Gallup and lower than Richard Nixon's at the time of his resignation.
Survey USA puts Bush's approval rating in Missouri at 30% (as of 10/23), down from 35% in September.
Who is that 27% and what, specifically, do they like about the current administration?
Survey USA puts Bush's approval rating in Missouri at 30% (as of 10/23), down from 35% in September.
Who is that 27% and what, specifically, do they like about the current administration?
The Nader factor?
Yes, Missouri appears to be the only state still trying to decide who won the Presidential election. The Secretary of State's website has McCain up by .2% or only 5,859 votes.
There will be plenty of time to assess how Missouri has lost its bellwether status and what that says about the political direction the state is taking but in the meantime, let's take a look at the polling.
The last Pollster average had Obama leading by a hair, 48.5% to 47.4%--clearly within the margin of error so the flip to a McCain lead is not that surprising. What is surprising is that Ralph Nader pulled in 17,769 votes while Bob Barr pulled in 11,355. All totaled, third party candidates pulled in 36,347 votes, a large total and more than enough to swing this election one way or the other.
The breakdown of votes is even more telling. There were four third party tickets on the ballot in Missouri:
But what if all four were not on the ballot? We can assume the Libertarian vote (Barr) would go to McCain while the Independent vote (Nader) would go to Obama. Likewise the Wisconsin Green vote would end up in Obama's court. The Constitution Party is an odd mix--but likely McCain votes.
So, the final totals would be 1,455,541 for Obama and for 1,462,209 McCain, giving McCain a slightly stronger lead (6668 votes) but essentially changing nothing.
There will be plenty of time to assess how Missouri has lost its bellwether status and what that says about the political direction the state is taking but in the meantime, let's take a look at the polling.
The last Pollster average had Obama leading by a hair, 48.5% to 47.4%--clearly within the margin of error so the flip to a McCain lead is not that surprising. What is surprising is that Ralph Nader pulled in 17,769 votes while Bob Barr pulled in 11,355. All totaled, third party candidates pulled in 36,347 votes, a large total and more than enough to swing this election one way or the other.
The breakdown of votes is even more telling. There were four third party tickets on the ballot in Missouri:
- The Wisconsin Green Party - 958
- The Constitution Party - 8181
- The Libertarian Party - 11,355
- The Independent Party - 17,769
But what if all four were not on the ballot? We can assume the Libertarian vote (Barr) would go to McCain while the Independent vote (Nader) would go to Obama. Likewise the Wisconsin Green vote would end up in Obama's court. The Constitution Party is an odd mix--but likely McCain votes.
So, the final totals would be 1,455,541 for Obama and for 1,462,209 McCain, giving McCain a slightly stronger lead (6668 votes) but essentially changing nothing.
Lessons from the Election
Lessons & Observations From the November 4, 2008 General Election
1. Issues. Economic or “pocket-book” issues will trump social issues every time.
2. Resources. When it comes to campaign financing, never unilaterally disarm. John McCain voluntarily put his campaign at a huge financial disadvantage by accepting public financing.
Barack Obama, who did not accept public financing, had money to burn and could simultaneously cut his losses in so-called “red” states and provide resources and support to down-ticket Democrats across the country.
3. VP. A Presidential candidate’s VP choice can hurt but it usually doesn’t help. Sarah Palin hurt John McCain, but Joe Biden did not help Barack Obama.
4. Approval Ratings. A term-limited President with low poll numbers can drag down his entire party. President Bush’s policies and historically low approval rating were impossible hurdles for McCain and down ticket Republicans to overcome.
5. Beltway Politics. John McCain, first elected to Congress in 1982 and a U.S. Senator since 1986, had an almost impossible task of painting himself as a Washington, D.C. outsider who can bring “change” to America.
In contrast, Barack Obama was unrelenting & highly successful in his efforts to connect McCain to Bush and to label McCain as a third Bush term who will take this country backwards, not forwards.
6. Race. While I won’t go as far as to say that the U.S. is “post-racial”, I will say that a well-run campaign, qualifications and leadership style will trump race every time.
7. Divided Government. When faced with a potential landslide by either Democrats or Republicans, the additional check and balance provided by divided government becomes more important to more voters.
8. Strategy. Stay on message. McCain appeared to be floundering, looking for a theme that would stick, while Obama kept hammering away at 2 or 3 core themes.
9. Taxes. Citizens will willingly pay fair taxes IF they are going to make our country stronger – military, borders, infrastructure, alternative energy sources, etc. – but not if the taxes are used to support those that should support themselves (welfare programs) or failed programs.
10. Extremes. Letting the extreme point-of-view control any issue is a recipe for disaster. Too much regulation is just as bad as too little regulation. Government must enact and enforce reasonable regulations for our financial markets, credit markets, mortgage industry & banks. A free market does not mean an unregulated market.
You can’t have capitalism and the free market on the way up and socialism on the way down.
11. Deficits. Voters and politicians are finally starting to take a serious look at the budget deficit and national debt, including the funding of entitlement programs such as Social Security, Medicare, & Medicaid.
1. Issues. Economic or “pocket-book” issues will trump social issues every time.
2. Resources. When it comes to campaign financing, never unilaterally disarm. John McCain voluntarily put his campaign at a huge financial disadvantage by accepting public financing.
Barack Obama, who did not accept public financing, had money to burn and could simultaneously cut his losses in so-called “red” states and provide resources and support to down-ticket Democrats across the country.
3. VP. A Presidential candidate’s VP choice can hurt but it usually doesn’t help. Sarah Palin hurt John McCain, but Joe Biden did not help Barack Obama.
4. Approval Ratings. A term-limited President with low poll numbers can drag down his entire party. President Bush’s policies and historically low approval rating were impossible hurdles for McCain and down ticket Republicans to overcome.
5. Beltway Politics. John McCain, first elected to Congress in 1982 and a U.S. Senator since 1986, had an almost impossible task of painting himself as a Washington, D.C. outsider who can bring “change” to America.
In contrast, Barack Obama was unrelenting & highly successful in his efforts to connect McCain to Bush and to label McCain as a third Bush term who will take this country backwards, not forwards.
6. Race. While I won’t go as far as to say that the U.S. is “post-racial”, I will say that a well-run campaign, qualifications and leadership style will trump race every time.
7. Divided Government. When faced with a potential landslide by either Democrats or Republicans, the additional check and balance provided by divided government becomes more important to more voters.
8. Strategy. Stay on message. McCain appeared to be floundering, looking for a theme that would stick, while Obama kept hammering away at 2 or 3 core themes.
9. Taxes. Citizens will willingly pay fair taxes IF they are going to make our country stronger – military, borders, infrastructure, alternative energy sources, etc. – but not if the taxes are used to support those that should support themselves (welfare programs) or failed programs.
10. Extremes. Letting the extreme point-of-view control any issue is a recipe for disaster. Too much regulation is just as bad as too little regulation. Government must enact and enforce reasonable regulations for our financial markets, credit markets, mortgage industry & banks. A free market does not mean an unregulated market.
You can’t have capitalism and the free market on the way up and socialism on the way down.
11. Deficits. Voters and politicians are finally starting to take a serious look at the budget deficit and national debt, including the funding of entitlement programs such as Social Security, Medicare, & Medicaid.
Wednesday, November 5, 2008
Other ballot issues.
For now at least, the American people seem to looking towards a more tolerant chapter in our nation's history. The presidential election did in fact show that values issues will be trumped by economic issues.
However, taking a look at some of the ballot initiatives across the state, it's clear that the American people still care very deeply about certain hot button issues. Even if particular candidates are focusing on issues such as the economy and the wars, there are still large groups of individuals committed to getting value issues on to the ballot.
How each measure fared depends on the state but overall, it was not a good night for gays and lesbians or for immigration/minority issues. Here's a list:
Arizona
Ban on Gay Marriage
Passed 56% - 44%
Hiring Illegal Immigrants (employer sanctions)
Failed 59% - 41%
Arkansas
Ban on Gay Couples Adopting Children
Passed 57% - 43%
California
Ban on Gay Marriage
Currently passing 52% - 48%
Abortion Limits (parental notification)
Failed 52% - 48%
Colorado
End Affirmative Action
Currently tied 50% - 50%
Define Human Life from Moment of Conception
Failing 73% -27%
Florida
Ban on Gay Marriage
Passed 62% - 38%
Maryland
Allow Video Lottery
Passed 59% - 41%
Massachusetts
Repeal State Income Tax
Failed 70%-30%
Michigan
Allow Medical Marijuana
Passed 63% - 37%
Allow Stem Cell Research
Passed 53% - 47%
Missouri
English Language Only
Passed 86% - 14%
Stormwater
Passed 58% - 42%
Casinos and Gambling (loss limits)
Passed 56%- 44%
Home Care
Passed 75%-25%
Renewable Energy
Passed 66%-34%
Nebraska
End Affirmative Action
Passed 58% - 42%
South Dakota
Abortion Limits
Failed 55%-45%
Washington
Allow Doctor-Assisted Suicide
Passed 59-41%
However, taking a look at some of the ballot initiatives across the state, it's clear that the American people still care very deeply about certain hot button issues. Even if particular candidates are focusing on issues such as the economy and the wars, there are still large groups of individuals committed to getting value issues on to the ballot.
How each measure fared depends on the state but overall, it was not a good night for gays and lesbians or for immigration/minority issues. Here's a list:
Arizona
Ban on Gay Marriage
Passed 56% - 44%
Hiring Illegal Immigrants (employer sanctions)
Failed 59% - 41%
Arkansas
Ban on Gay Couples Adopting Children
Passed 57% - 43%
California
Ban on Gay Marriage
Currently passing 52% - 48%
Abortion Limits (parental notification)
Failed 52% - 48%
Colorado
End Affirmative Action
Currently tied 50% - 50%
Define Human Life from Moment of Conception
Failing 73% -27%
Florida
Ban on Gay Marriage
Passed 62% - 38%
Maryland
Allow Video Lottery
Passed 59% - 41%
Massachusetts
Repeal State Income Tax
Failed 70%-30%
Michigan
Allow Medical Marijuana
Passed 63% - 37%
Allow Stem Cell Research
Passed 53% - 47%
Missouri
English Language Only
Passed 86% - 14%
Stormwater
Passed 58% - 42%
Casinos and Gambling (loss limits)
Passed 56%- 44%
Home Care
Passed 75%-25%
Renewable Energy
Passed 66%-34%
Nebraska
End Affirmative Action
Passed 58% - 42%
South Dakota
Abortion Limits
Failed 55%-45%
Washington
Allow Doctor-Assisted Suicide
Passed 59-41%
McCain's speech.
The most common word to describe Senator McCain's speech last night was "gracious." Newsweek also describes some behind-the-scenes decisions made by the campaign which can only be described as honorable:
One hopes that both Obama and McCain meant it last night when they spoke of a true bipartisan effort on behalf of our country.
...no Jeremiah Wright; no attacking Michelle Obama; no attacking Obama for not serving in the military. McCain balked at an ad using images of children that suggested that Obama might not protect them from terrorism.
One hopes that both Obama and McCain meant it last night when they spoke of a true bipartisan effort on behalf of our country.
Computer hacking.
Newsweek is reporting that both the Obama and the McCain campaign computer systems were hacked into earlier this summer
Officials at the FBI and the White House told the Obama campaign that they believed a foreign entity or organization sought to gather information on the evolution of both camps' policy positions—information that might be useful in negotiations with a future administration. The Feds assured the Obama team that it had not been hacked by its political opponents. (Obama technical experts later speculated that the hackers were Russian or Chinese.)
How did we do?
Looking over my predictions for yesterday, I can see that I was a bit overcautious. Actually, I was concerned I was overestimating the Obama-effect.
Here are my predictions and where the counts stand as of today:
Here are my predictions and where the counts stand as of today:
- Obama by 6 points, tops 340 electoral votes. Obama by 6.1% with 349 electoral votes.
Tuesday, November 4, 2008
What we won't miss.
Tired of hearing about Joe the Plumber? How about these political catch phrases we're happy to bid goodbye to:
- pivot
- narrative
- circular firing squad
- bitter and clinging
- bridge to nowhere
- gone rogue
- schadenfreude
- you betcha
- gaffe
- Bradley Effect
- umbrage
- maverick
GOTV comparisons.
We have what you might consider a mixed household--given which ballots we pull during the primaries, it would be hard to classify us as a house of one party or the other. In light of that, here are the get out the vote efforts of each campaign:
Obama
McCain
Obama
- 1 live-person phone call a day for the last 2 weeks.
- 4 door-to-door visits
- 6 text messages
McCain
- 1 robocall
Predictions
- Obama by 6 points, tops 340 electoral votes.
- McCain takes Missouri by a hair.
- McCain takes Indiana.
- Obama takes Florida, Ohio, Virginia and Pennsylvania - just 3 will sew it up.
- Obama changes map by taking Nevada, Colorado and New Mexico. (McCain's home state of Arizona prevents sweep of the southwest.)
- McCain takes Georgia but Senate race will take a while to call.
- Senate hits 58 or 59 but not 60.
- House picks up more Dems, but less than 20.
- Nixon wins the gubernatorial. (Going out on a limb here.)
- Luetkemeyer takes the 9th Congressional (If Obama were doing better in the state, this would be the democrat's year.)
- Bradley effect proves non-existent.
Monday, November 3, 2008
Pull up your pants!
Obama on MTV this morning:
Here is my attitude: I think people passing a law against people wearing sagging pants is a waste of time. We should be focused on creating jobs, improving our schools, health care, dealing with the war in Iraq, and anybody, any public official, that is worrying about sagging pants probably needs to spend some time focusing on real problems out there. Having said that, brothers should pull up their pants. You are walking by your mother, your grandmother, your underwear is showing. What's wrong with that? Come on. There are some issues that we face, that you don't have to pass a law, but that doesn't mean folks can't have some sense and some respect for other people and, you know, some people might not want to see your underwear — I'm one of them.
Missouri tidbits.
Politico has a couple of interesting bits on Missouri.
The first is a taste of the Obama campaign's election day legal strategy. The second is Bishop Robert Finn of Kansas City warning people to vote against Obama or they are putting their souls at risk. According to Bishop Finn:
The first is a taste of the Obama campaign's election day legal strategy. The second is Bishop Robert Finn of Kansas City warning people to vote against Obama or they are putting their souls at risk. According to Bishop Finn:
You make yourself a participant in the act of abortion and you mustn't do it because your eternal salvation is tied up with that important choice.
How the nation has changed.
On NPR this am, a man from Nevada explained why he was voting for Obama:
His grandfather was a slave and always told him that one day he may see a black man as president.
What great optimism.
His grandfather was a slave and always told him that one day he may see a black man as president.
What great optimism.
RNC ad strategy.
Back on October 23 we reported that the RNC had just bought up most of the available TV spots here in Mid-Missouri. Well, we've certainly seen the results. There have been a spat of new negative ads hitting Obama on experience, celebrity and defense. (Although, to be fair, some of these ads are better classified as "contrast" ads, ones that make legitimate points about an opponent.)
The question is, why did they wait until now to run these ads? Obama has virtually solidified the narrative--including the negative characterization of McCain as another 4 years of Bush. Investing earlier may have prevented this characterization from taking hold.
The reason is that these ads are directed at the undecideds, a key element of the McCain camp's win strategy. The conventional wisdom among some (although I've seen polls that suggest differently) is that the undecideds will break for McCain and all they need is a little push to remind them how uncomfortable they are with an Obama presidency (for whatever reason.)
Usually a good strategy except that McCain has never really defined himself to the voters and many of the undecideds have been waiting for that defining moment. In other words, they don't need the scales tipped against Obama, they need a reason to vote for McCain. Given this, he should be running positive ads that highlight his biography, his accomplishments, and what he will do as President.
The Obama campaign gets this--why else would they run a 30 minute warm fuzzy of an ad a week out?
The question is, why did they wait until now to run these ads? Obama has virtually solidified the narrative--including the negative characterization of McCain as another 4 years of Bush. Investing earlier may have prevented this characterization from taking hold.
The reason is that these ads are directed at the undecideds, a key element of the McCain camp's win strategy. The conventional wisdom among some (although I've seen polls that suggest differently) is that the undecideds will break for McCain and all they need is a little push to remind them how uncomfortable they are with an Obama presidency (for whatever reason.)
Usually a good strategy except that McCain has never really defined himself to the voters and many of the undecideds have been waiting for that defining moment. In other words, they don't need the scales tipped against Obama, they need a reason to vote for McCain. Given this, he should be running positive ads that highlight his biography, his accomplishments, and what he will do as President.
The Obama campaign gets this--why else would they run a 30 minute warm fuzzy of an ad a week out?
Sunday, November 2, 2008
3 more McCain mistakes
1) Neglected his base while everyone was focused on the Obama-Clinton race.
He could have had reached out to the Republican base on values issues without a lot of press attention. Instead, he toured solid Democratic areas and talked about his biography--a snooze-fest compared to the battle happening over on the Democratic side. Solidifying the base early would have made the Palin pick unnecessary.
2) Recycled Hillary Clinton's losing strategy.
Painting Obama as "other", attacking him on experience, criticizing his speaking abilities, relying on the largely white vote coming out of Appalachia and the Rust Belt, changing the message daily...need I go on? Oh yea, and he also replicated the Clinton campaign's lack of leadership, staff infighting and inability to budget money.
3) Forgot about the big picture.
Campaigns are about vision and McCain never really presented his to the public. He had a lot of good policy ideas but never pulled it all together. Odd, he really did have all the right ingredients--accountability in government, reducing spending, opposed to some major Bush policies, etc.--but never settled on one clear message. Instead, his campaign got caught up in the tactical details trying to win the daily news cycle. Winning the battle and losing the war.
He could have had reached out to the Republican base on values issues without a lot of press attention. Instead, he toured solid Democratic areas and talked about his biography--a snooze-fest compared to the battle happening over on the Democratic side. Solidifying the base early would have made the Palin pick unnecessary.
2) Recycled Hillary Clinton's losing strategy.
Painting Obama as "other", attacking him on experience, criticizing his speaking abilities, relying on the largely white vote coming out of Appalachia and the Rust Belt, changing the message daily...need I go on? Oh yea, and he also replicated the Clinton campaign's lack of leadership, staff infighting and inability to budget money.
3) Forgot about the big picture.
Campaigns are about vision and McCain never really presented his to the public. He had a lot of good policy ideas but never pulled it all together. Odd, he really did have all the right ingredients--accountability in government, reducing spending, opposed to some major Bush policies, etc.--but never settled on one clear message. Instead, his campaign got caught up in the tactical details trying to win the daily news cycle. Winning the battle and losing the war.
Top 3 McCain mistakes.
- Stuck with public financing, putting himself at a huge disadvantage over Obama.
- Chose Sarah Palin as his vice presidential pick.
- Allowed Obama to define him as another four years of Bush.
Saturday, November 1, 2008
Pennsylvania
Obama must be pretty confident about Pennsylvania--he's not heading back there before Tuesday.
More Missouri visits
On October 23, I tallied visits by Obama/Biden and McCain/Palin to our state and found that the Obama camp was leading 15 to 9. Since then, both campaigns have been hitting the swing states hard--and given that Missouri is still split down the middle, we'd expect the number of trips to increase.
The new stats? Obama has visited two more times, in Springfield and Columbia and Biden an additional time, to Arnold. Palin has visited once more to Cape and is planning a visit to Jefferson City. And McCain? Nothing.
Where has McCain been? A couple visits to New Mexico and Colorado and one odd trip to Iowa. His main focus has been the high-Hillary, rust belt states of Pennsylvania and Ohio. Specifically, 5 to Pennsylvania and 11 to Ohio.
Thing he's talking about clinging to guns and religion?
The new stats? Obama has visited two more times, in Springfield and Columbia and Biden an additional time, to Arnold. Palin has visited once more to Cape and is planning a visit to Jefferson City. And McCain? Nothing.
Where has McCain been? A couple visits to New Mexico and Colorado and one odd trip to Iowa. His main focus has been the high-Hillary, rust belt states of Pennsylvania and Ohio. Specifically, 5 to Pennsylvania and 11 to Ohio.
Thing he's talking about clinging to guns and religion?
McCain robo calls
Already received a robo call about Obama's aunt. Apparently, she's living here illegally on my tax dollar.
Subscribe to:
Posts (Atom)
